6 Oct · 13:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1526
FormWLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Smolka
MJ
🇵🇱Michal Jozefiak
ELO 1473
FormLLLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)