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06 Oct · 16:55 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1327
1-3Final setsRolak won
JRJaroslaw Rolak
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1322
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 52%. The actual result was Jaroslaw Rolak 1-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Mrugala favoured — closing 1.65
Upset
Total 75.5
71 points played
Under
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mrugala is favoured to win, below means Jaroslaw Rolak.

▲ Bartlomiej Mrugalapre 56% → final 1%
Jaroslaw Rolak ▼
Biggest swing 69 ptsRolak recovered from 30%70 points · 4 games