6 Oct · 19:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1364
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skorski
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1327
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H10-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.