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07 Oct · 05:15 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BWBartlomiej Wisniewski
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1341
3-1Final setsWisniewski won
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1285
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Wisniewski at 53%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Wisniewski 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Lukaszewski favoured — closing 1.65
Upset
Total 76.5
76 points played
Under
Set handicap
Lukaszewski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Lukaszewski −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.9
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Wisniewski is favoured to win, below means Mikolaj Lukaszewski.

▲ Bartlomiej Wisniewskipre 50% → final 96%
Mikolaj Lukaszewski ▼
Biggest swing 54 pts72 points · 4 games