7 Oct · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1584
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Krezel
AK
🇵🇱Andrzej Krezel
ELO 1600
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Krezel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.