7 Oct · 15:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1651
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kapik
MR
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1610
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rutkowski🌟Rutkowski covers set handicap as underdog 68% (176)
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 47% · 2.14· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H85-92
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.