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07 Oct · 17:20 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1354
3-1Final setsKowalczyk won
PKPiotr Krukar
🇵🇱Piotr Krukar
ELO 1324
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kowalczyk at 51%. The actual result was Marcin Kowalczyk 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Piotr Krukar favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 74.5
72 points played
Under
Set handicap
Piotr Krukar −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Piotr Krukar −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marcin Kowalczyk is favoured to win, below means Piotr Krukar.

▲ Marcin Kowalczykpre 55% → final 90%
Piotr Krukar ▼
Biggest swing 38 pts71 points · 4 games