8 Oct · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1364
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Warpas
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1342
FormWWLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H9-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.