8 Oct · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1643
FormLWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Stecyszyn
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Stecyszyn
ELO 1705
FormWWWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Stecyszyn
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)