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08 Oct · 10:30 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1645
3-1Final setsPoliniewicz won
MRMateusz Rutkowski
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1618
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Poliniewicz at 52%. The actual result was Grzegorz Poliniewicz 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mateusz Rutkowski favoured — closing 1.7
Upset
Total 79.5
75 points played
Under
Set handicap
Mateusz Rutkowski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mateusz Rutkowski −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
5.6
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Grzegorz Poliniewicz is favoured to win, below means Mateusz Rutkowski.

▲ Grzegorz Poliniewiczpre 56% → final 90%
Mateusz Rutkowski ▼
Biggest swing 44 pts72 points · 4 games