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08 Oct · 17:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MKMariusz Koczyba
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1536
3-1Final setsKoczyba won
RKRafal Komandzik
🇵🇱Rafal Komandzik
ELO 1383
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Koczyba at 65%. The actual result was Mariusz Koczyba 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mariusz Koczyba favoured — closing 1.2
Favourite won
Total 71.5
66 points played
Under
Set handicap
Mariusz Koczyba −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Mariusz Koczyba −8.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
2.7
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Koczyba is favoured to win, below means Rafal Komandzik.

▲ Mariusz Koczybapre 70% → final 100%
Rafal Komandzik ▼
Biggest swing 37 pts65 points · 4 games