9 Oct · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1374
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skorski
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1386
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Trela stays under total as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H54-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.