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09 Oct · 02:20 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MTMarek Tkocz
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1601
1-3Final setsKomandzik won
RKRafal Komandzik
🇵🇱Rafal Komandzik
ELO 1375
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Tkocz at 75%. The actual result was Rafal Komandzik 1-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marek Tkocz favoured — closing 1.12
Upset
Total 67.5
72 points played
Over
Set handicap
Marek Tkocz −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marek Tkocz −10.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marek Tkocz is favoured to win, below means Rafal Komandzik.

▲ Marek Tkoczpre 74% → final 18%
Rafal Komandzik ▼
Biggest swing 70 ptsKomandzik recovered from 12%71 points · 4 games