9 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YF
🇵🇱Yurij Fomin
ELO 1484
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kurek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1518
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Fomin stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.