9 Oct · 16:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JB
🇵🇱Josef Braun
ELO 1745
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Braun
PK
🇵🇱Patrik Klos
ELO 1713
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Braun
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.61· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H13-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.