9 Oct · 19:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1667
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Oracz
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jedrzejowski
ELO 1604
FormLWLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H22-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-10)