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09 Oct · 17:45 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
DPDawid Poloszczanski
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1310
3-2Final setsPoloszczanski won
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1314
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lukaszewski at 51%. The actual result was Dawid Poloszczanski 3-2 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Lukaszewski favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Total 76.5
96 points played
Over
Set handicap
Lukaszewski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Lukaszewski −0.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.7
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Dawid Poloszczanski is favoured to win, below means Mikolaj Lukaszewski.

▲ Dawid Poloszczanskipre 53% → final 77%
Mikolaj Lukaszewski ▼
Biggest swing 85 ptsPoloszczanski recovered from 4%72 points · 5 games