9 Oct · 23:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1558
FormLLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jedrzejowski
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jedrzejowski
ELO 1611
FormWLWWL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krutak🌟Jedrzejowski stays under total as favourite 67% (18)
Fair odds · Jedrzejowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H11-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-3)