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09 Oct · 22:15 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
DPDawid Poloszczanski
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1293
1-3Final setsLukaszewski won
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1318
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lukaszewski at 51%. The actual result was Mikolaj Lukaszewski 1-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mikolaj Lukaszewski favoured — closing 1.75
Favourite won
Set handicap
Mikolaj Lukaszewski −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Mikolaj Lukaszewski −1.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Dawid Poloszczanski is favoured to win, below means Mikolaj Lukaszewski.

▲ Dawid Poloszczanskipre 53% → final 77%
Mikolaj Lukaszewski ▼
Biggest swing 85 ptsPoloszczanski recovered from 4%72 points · 5 games