10 Oct · 06:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KP
🇵🇱Kacper Petas
ELO 1863
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Petas
DM
🇵🇱Dawid Michna
ELO 1821
FormWLLLW
55%
45%
🌟Michna covers set handicap as underdog 69% (134)
Fair odds · Petas
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H22-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)