10 Oct · 06:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1451
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Piotrowski
KK
🇵🇱Kamil Kostyk
ELO 1438
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.