10 Oct · 06:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1318
FormWLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Szoltysek
AS
🇵🇱Artur Szoltysek
ELO 1361
FormWWWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Szoltysek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H12-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-9)