10 Oct · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1515
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Koczyba
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1530
FormLWLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.77· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H43-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.