10 Oct · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1472
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mleczko
KK
🇵🇱Kamil Kostyk
ELO 1438
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🌟Mleczko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (28)
Fair odds · Mleczko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 43% · 2.33· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.