10 Oct · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇵🇱Dariusz Swider
ELO 1532
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Swider
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1530
FormLLWLL
50%
50%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 74% (35)
Fair odds · Swider
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.