10 Oct · 12:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1522
FormLWWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Cichocki
AC
🇵🇱Aleksander Cichocki
ELO 1603
FormLLWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Cichocki
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+81
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)