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10 Oct · 20:45 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
CPCezary Pawlik
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1649
2-3Final setsMucha won
GMGrzegorz Mucha
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1540
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Pawlik at 64%. The actual result was Grzegorz Mucha 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Pawlik favoured — closing 1.5
Upset
Set handicap
Pawlik −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Pawlik −4.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Cezary Pawlik is favoured to win, below means Grzegorz Mucha.

▲ Cezary Pawlikpre 69% → final 6%
Grzegorz Mucha ▼
Biggest swing 85 ptsMucha recovered from 12%72 points · 5 games