11 Oct · 21:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1520
FormWLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Marud
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1516
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
🌟Marud stays under total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H60-55
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.