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11 Oct · 21:10 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MBMariusz Baron
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1442
3-2Final setsBaron won
ISIgor Szymanski
🇵🇱Igor Szymanski
ELO 1273
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Baron at 61%. The actual result was Mariusz Baron 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mariusz Baron favoured — closing 1.42
Favourite won
Total 74.5
97 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mariusz Baron −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mariusz Baron −5.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.3
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Baron is favoured to win, below means Igor Szymanski.

▲ Mariusz Baronpre 65% → final 13%
Igor Szymanski ▼
Biggest swing 53 ptsSzymanski recovered from 35%70 points · 4 games