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11 Oct · 22:25 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MBMariusz Baron
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1449
3-1Final setsBaron won
MSMateusz Sikon
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1412
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Baron at 54%. The actual result was Mariusz Baron 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mariusz Baron favoured — closing 1.75
Favourite won
Set handicap
Mariusz Baron −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Mariusz Baron −1.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.1
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Baron is favoured to win, below means Mateusz Sikon.

▲ Mariusz Baronpre 58% → final 96%
Mateusz Sikon ▼
Biggest swing 47 pts72 points · 4 games