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12 Oct · 01:10 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MBMariusz Baron
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1442
1-3Final setsSawicki won
GSGrzegorz Sawicki
🇵🇱Grzegorz Sawicki
ELO 1353
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Baron at 60%. The actual result was Grzegorz Sawicki 1-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mariusz Baron favoured — closing 1.52
Upset
Set handicap
Mariusz Baron −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mariusz Baron −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Baron is favoured to win, below means Grzegorz Sawicki.

▲ Mariusz Baronpre 64% → final 13%
Grzegorz Sawicki ▼
Biggest swing 67 ptsSawicki recovered from 29%72 points · 4 games