12 Oct · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1662
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Poliniewicz
JM
🇵🇱Jacek Mitas
ELO 1606
FormWLLLW
56%
44%
🌟Poliniewicz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (17)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)