12 Oct · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1607
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sobel
BC
🇵🇱Bartosz Czerwinski
ELO 1592
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H3-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.