12 Oct · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1453
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Wolny
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1392
FormWWLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Wolny
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H15-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-8)