12 Oct · 07:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WS
🇵🇱Witold Stechly
ELO 1209
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Przebierala
TP
🇵🇱Tomasz Przebierala
ELO 1218
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Przebierala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.