12 Oct · 15:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1639
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Poliniewicz
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1633
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kapik🌟Poliniewicz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (17)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.14· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H28-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.