12 Oct · 19:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1512
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Oracz
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1468
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 64% (61)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H22-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-10)