12 Oct · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1367
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kwodawski
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1331
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Kwodawski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.