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12 Oct · 18:30 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1335
3-1Final setsMrugala won
KGKuba Golaszewski
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1259
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 57%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mrugala 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Mrugala favoured — closing 1.65
Favourite won
Total 78.5
77 points played
Under
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −2.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.05
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mrugala is favoured to win, below means Kuba Golaszewski.

▲ Bartlomiej Mrugalapre 54% → final 91%
Kuba Golaszewski ▼
Biggest swing 51 ptsMrugala recovered from 40%72 points · 4 games