12 Oct · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1539
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Marud
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1461
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
🌟Marud stays under total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~81 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H61-56
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (61-56)