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12 Oct · 19:40 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1336
3-1Final setsMrugala won
PSPiotr Strus
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1336
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Strus at 51%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mrugala 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Piotr Strus favoured — closing 1.6
Upset
Total 75.5
72 points played
Under
Set handicap
Piotr Strus −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Piotr Strus −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.85
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mrugala is favoured to win, below means Piotr Strus.

▲ Bartlomiej Mrugalapre 45% → final 89%
Piotr Strus ▼
Biggest swing 50 ptsMrugala recovered from 44%71 points · 4 games