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12 Oct · 22:15 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MZMariusz Zwolinski
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1331
3-1Final setsZwolinski won
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1338
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 51%. The actual result was Mariusz Zwolinski 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Mrugala favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 76.5
82 points played
Over
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.45
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Zwolinski is favoured to win, below means Bartlomiej Mrugala.

▲ Mariusz Zwolinskipre 45% → final 89%
Bartlomiej Mrugala ▼
Biggest swing 75 ptsZwolinski recovered from 14%72 points · 4 games