13 Oct · 03:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1517
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gumulinski
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1501
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H18-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.