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13 Oct · 00:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1289
0-3Final setsMrugala won
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1345
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 52%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mrugala 0-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Mrugala favoured — closing 1.8
Favourite won
Total 75.5
60 points played
Under
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −0.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mikolaj Lukaszewski is favoured to win, below means Bartlomiej Mrugala.

▲ Mikolaj Lukaszewskipre 44% → final 5%
Bartlomiej Mrugala ▼
Biggest swing 43 pts59 points · 3 games