13 Oct · 06:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇵🇱Jacek Mitas
ELO 1587
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Poliniewicz
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1639
FormLWWLL
44%
56%
🌟Poliniewicz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (17)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)