13 Oct · 07:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1507
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kurek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1509
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
🌟Marud covers set handicap as underdog 80% (15)
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H10-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.