13 Oct · 06:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1530
FormWWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Gumulinski
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1471
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 64% (61)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H84-39
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (84-39)