13 Oct · 12:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1584
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kosmal
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1608
FormLLWLL
47%
53%
🌟Rutkowski covers set handicap as underdog 68% (176)
Fair odds · Kosmal
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.