13 Oct · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MJ
🇵🇱Michal Jozefiak
ELO 1442
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1470
FormWWLWW
47%
53%
🌟Schaniel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (155)
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.