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13 Oct · 16:55 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1347
3-1Final setsMrugala won
JRJaroslaw Rolak
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1280
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 56%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mrugala 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Mrugala favoured — closing 1.65
Favourite won
Total 75.5
69 points played
Under
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −2.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
3.6
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mrugala is favoured to win, below means Jaroslaw Rolak.

▲ Bartlomiej Mrugalapre 60% → final 91%
Jaroslaw Rolak ▼
Biggest swing 36 pts68 points · 4 games